Postponement

Postponement Strategy Materials Management End Term Project (Term –IV) Date: 15th September 2009 Submitted To: Submitted By: Prof. Vivek Kumar Namrata Agarwal(81031) Prof. Kaushik Paul Neha Gupta(81034) Contents Chapter 14 Introduction4 1. 1 What is Postponement? 4 1. 2 A specific example5 1. 3 Postponement in operation7 Chapter 29 Literature Review9 Chapter 314 When is Postponement Appropriate? 14 3. 1 The Postponement/Speculation (P/S) Matrix14 3. 2 Costs & Benefits of Postponement15 3. 2. 1 More variety15 3. 2. 2 Inventory reduction18 3. 2. 3 Better forecast accuracy19 . 2. 4 Inventory cost reduction20 3. 2. 5 Logistics cost reduction22 3. 2. 6 Improved customer service levels22 3. 2. 7 Increased product development cost23 3. 2. 8 Increased manufacturing cost23 Chapter 424 Case Studies24 4. 1 Automobile Manufacturing: GM24 4. 2 Aircraft Manufacturing: Embraer26 4. 3 Clinical Equipments: Dade Behring29 4. 4 Sports Goods Manufacturing: Reebok32 4. 5 Xilinx34 Chapter 536 Concl usion36 Chapter 638 Future of postponement38 6. 1 Services and postponement38 References40 Chapter 1 Introduction Over the past 2 decades, logistics activities have gained increasing strategic importance for most companies. Fixed costs of production have increased, consumer demands have become more complex and are harder to predict, both in time and place. Technology is rapidly changing and product life cycles have shortened while product range has increased. Now more than ever, companies are faced with the challenge of producing an increasingly large variety of products in a responsive manner while keeping materials and inventory to a minimum. These issues represent significant challenges for companies producing and selling in a variety of international markets. Not only does demand vary from country to country, but products need to be altered for different markets in consideration of differences in language, culture and local standards. Increasingly, companies are using a strategy known as postponement or mass customization to improve customer service and minimize the risks associated with making different products in different countries. This paper presents a framework for understanding postponement and how it can be implemented. Also, with the help of successful case studies potential savings as well challenges in implementation will be highlighted. . 1 What is Postponement? The term postponement refers to delayed decision-making about a product. It is beneficial to delay commitment to product-specific characteristics as late as possible in order to avoid a mismatch between orders and inventory on hand. The length of delay is specific to a product but the common strategic motivation is to gain better information about customer demand by w aiting to customize a product for a particular market or customer. At the point of postponement a standardized module or platform starts to acquire customer or market specific characteristics. Figure 1-1 shows the spectrum of opportunities for postponement that extends from procurement to distribution. The point of postponement can occur as early as the design phase and as late as packaging and distribution. Postponement at the manufacturing stage has arguably the most potential for cost savings in inventory due to risk pooling. Other points of differentiation can occur in the assembly, labeling, packaging, or distribution phases. Some postponement can even occur after the point of sale in the form of service offerings. [pic] Figure 1-1: Possible points of differentiation in the supply chain Postponement enables forecasters to make better predictions about end product demand over time since the standard module is built-to-forecast and the finished product is built to a better forecast or even built-to-order. Lee and Whang [20] observe that shorter the time horizon over which predictions are made, the more accurate the forecast. The benefits are better end product forecasts and the ability to respond quickly to demand signals by holding unfinished goods in inventory awaiting final assembly or customization. Postponement also creates opportunities to lower inventory costs due to risk pooling because goods are kept in unfinished or component form and can be used to assemble more than one type of finished goods. The monetary value of an unfinished good is less because it is not committed to becoming a finished product and lacks the added value gained in final assembly. 1. 2 A specific example Consider a common case of postponement involving a fast food restaurant. Burger King started a trend with the â€Å"have it your way† marketing jingle as a way of advertising the value of getting a customized sandwich – fast! This strategy ensured the customer that each order would be made individually at the time of purchase – not taken from a batch of pre-made products. In a restaurant, ingredients are ordered in aggregate because it is not known what the final customer orders will be. Ingredients that are common to all sandwiches, like buns and lettuce, are ordered based on a total forecast of sales for each type of sandwich. Having a bun and lettuce ready and waiting for final assembly is the â€Å"platform† for the sandwich. The rest of the ingredients, like cheese, meat, and pickles, are components that are specific to each end product. If more of one type of sandwich is ordered or less of another, the total number of buns is not affected by this deviation in demand, however, the amount of cheese would be. It is much less costly to throw out a piece of cheese and use the platform for another order than to throw out an entire sandwich. At Burger King, inventory is managed at the aggregate level. There are four choices of meat and three different types of bun. In addition to buns and meat, there is the choice of cheese, bacon, lettuce, tomato, pickles and onion. In total Burger King can produce 768 different sandwiches as show in Table 1. 1. They know that it is costly to try and predict individual customer’s preferences so they aggregate orders into common platforms which consist of a bun, patty (chicken, beef, fish, or veggie) and lettuce, reducing the options from 768 to 128. Once common components are paired together in a platform, the number of options reduces dramatically because variety is determined by multiplying the number of options together. Once the platform is specified by a customer the rest of the sandwich is made-to-order. Component |Number of Options | |Patty |4 | |Buns |3 | |Cheese |2 | |Bacon |2 | |Lettuce |2 | |Tomato |2 | |Onion |2 | |Pickle |2 | |Total Combinations |768 | Table 1. 1: Sandwich options at Burger King This example illustrates how postponement through platform design and stocking individual components instead of finished goods is able to mitigate the risk associated with producing a wide variety of products. This concept can be applied to more than just food. Examples of products which can benefit from postponement include consumer appliances, automobiles, apparel, and even airplanes. These products have one or more of the following characteristics: high degree of forecast uncertainty, modularity, and high inventory carrying costs. 1. 3 Postponement in operation Operational postponement can be applied in one of two ways – manufacturing and assembly postponement and logistical postponement. Manufacturing and assembly postponement involves the engineering of a product as a module or platform which can take on several different features thereby increasing the variety of end products. The point of postponement can occur as early as the design phase. The intermediate product is stored in inventory and awaits customization. The value added through assembly or manufacturing may be performed at a finishing facility or at a warehouse just before shipping. Manufacturing and assembly postponement involve decisions made while the product is in production. Engineers seek to design a product as a module or platform which can accept different attachments or features in order to transform the appearance and or function to increase product variety. This concept was referred to as a â€Å"vanilla box† by Swaminathan and Tayur [42] because the generic platform is one without any customized value and is therefore the common denominator among a family of different products. Logistical postponement takes into account all other types of postponement involving logistical decisions like packaging, labeling, and distribution. Packaging and labeling postponement traditionally applies to small consumer goods products like razors, batteries, compact disks, film, and snack foods. Large retailers like Wal-Mart and Target require different configurations of packages to accommodate their customer demand and shelf space capacity and to differentiate commodity products. Gillette is well known for their packaging postponement operations. In 1996, Gillette decided to outsource the packaging of their health and beauty items to Sonoco. Bulk quantities of products are sent to Sonoco to await final packaging. Once orders are received appropriate packaging configurations are assembled and shipped to retailers. Manufacturers spend a significant amount of capital and labor trying to satisfy the variability in demand for different configurations for their retailers. However, companies like Gillette, that focus on their core competency, innovating and manufacturing razors and razor blades, push the risk onto their packaging supplier. Sonoco assumes the risk of forecasting for the different retailers which allows Gillette to produce to an aggregate forecast. The benefits for Gillette included a reduction in order fulfillment time from six weeks to one, a 15 percent decrease in packaging inventory, a 10 percent improvement in inventory accuracy, and a 15 percent reduction in packaging costs. Not only does this save Gillette from mismatching demand and configurations, it allows them to focus on engineering, design, and manufacturing of new products instead of packaging. Gillette avoided plant expansion, has a focused factory workforce and is winning favor with retailers by being so responsive. Another example of logistical postponement is the postponement of decisions made about the product during its distribution lead time (from finished product to customer delivery). Whirlpool, a popular manufacturer of household appliances, provides a good example. Customers of Whirlpool include retailers like Sears and Home Depot. Holding inventory of large appliances such as refrigerators and washing machines at local stores is costly because of the high product value and the space taken up in a back storage room. For this reason Whirlpool will send finished goods to a central distribution center and ship directly to the home once a customer order is placed. This method saves the retailer in inventory cost and eliminates additional transportation cost by bypassing the retailer. In addition, it reduces the risk that is inherent in sending a dedicated number of products to individual stores and having to transship orders between retailers. Chapter 2 Literature Review Sources date the idea of postponement as far back as the 1920s and the first use of postponement as a manufacturing strategy as early as the 1950s. Early mention of postponement suggested that costs due to risk and uncertainty were a function of variety and that an efficient means of producing a product is to â€Å"postpone changes in form and identity to the latest point in the marketing flow [and] postpone changes in inventory location to the latest point in time†. In 1965, Louis Bucklin recognized that little had been done in the area of postponement despite its tremendous potential for cost savings. He defined total cost as the sum of inventory holding cost and delivery cost, both of which are a function of delivery time. He argued that â€Å"a speculative inventory will appear at each point in a distribution channel whenever its costs are less than the net savings to both buyer and seller from postponement†. In other words, postponement is not cost effective when there is sufficient information about demand to produce finished goods in mass and store them in inventory. For some products it makes sense to postpone the finishing process by introducing a finishing cost and increasing the delivery time because the product is not readily available from stock. Zinn and Bowersox [50] classified postponement into five distinct types; labeling, packaging, assembly, manufacturing, and time. Labeling postponement assumes that products are standardized until they receive a label distinguishing them by brand. Packaging postponement is best suited for products in which variation is determined by package size. Paint, chemicals, medicine, razors, and many food items sold in bulk are good candidates for packaging postponement. Assembly postponement is applied to products in which variety is based on cosmetic features like cars, iPods, t-shirts, and printers. Hewlett-Packard (HP) provides an excellent example of assembly postponement. Printers designed for different global markets are inherently the same product except for country specific power supply modules, power cord plugs, and instruction manuals. HP makes two types of printers in Vancouver: a US version and a generic version that is customized once it reaches a distribution center in Europe, Asia, or the Pacific based on country specific orders. One benefit is decreased transportation cost because printers are shipped in bulk and are considered †vanilla† until they receive the value-added accessories like language manual and power supply. Manufacturing postponement occurs when parts are shipped to the finishing center from more than one supplier. It has the greatest potential for cost savings in inventory because the value of the product increases through the addition of each successive component. Manufacturing postponement usually results in higher production costs. The increase is due to the capital cost of switching machinery between different types of variety and shipping them to different finishing facilities. Time postponement occurs when finished products are shipped to centralized warehouses closer to the customer than the manufacturing location. The motivation is to increase customer service levels by decreasing customer lead time and to respond quickly to orders by placing inventories closer to the customer without committing to an individual order. |Postponement Type | Potentially Interested Firms | |Labeling |Several brand names | | |High unit value products | | High product sales fluctuations | |Packaging |Variability in package size | | |High unit value products | | |High product sales fluctuations | |Assembly |Selling products with several versions | | |High volume incurred by packaging | | |High unit value products | | |High product sales fluctuations | |Manufacturing |High proportion of ubiquitous material | | |High unit value products | | |High product sales fluctuations | |Time |High unit value products | | |Large number of distribution warehouses | Table 2. 1: Poten tial Utilization of Postponements The final outcome of their research is a framework which serves to assist managers in determining what type of postponement is best for a given product or supply chain structure. Table 2. 1 shows a list of the postponement types and the firms which would benefit from implementing each type of postponement. Swaminathan and Lee [42] go further and identify the factors which influence the costs and benefits of postponement as market factors, process factors, and product factors. Market factors refer to characteristics of demand and uncertainty. Process factors refer to characteristics of operating policy within the firm as well as the external supply chain, such as managerial support and the location of and relationship with suppliers. Product factors refer to the design and characteristics of an individual product such as integral versus modular and inventory carrying cost. They also highlight enablers of postponement such as process standardization, process resequencing (redesigning the assembly process to move value-added processes closer to the customer), and component standardization. Redesigning products with these characteristics makes postponement possible and reduces the risk to the manufacturer by eliminating redundant processes and designing products to be modular and component interfaces to have standard ports for easy assembly. Alvin Lehnerd and Marc Meyer [21] offer a detailed look at the benefit of engineering products to be platforms for a family of different products. The authors define two terms which are the basis for postponement. †¢ Product platform – a set of common components, modules, or parts from which a stream of derivative products can be efficiently created or launched †¢ Product family – a set of products that share common technology and address a related set of market applications These are both concepts that Black and Decker (BD) considered when they started to redesign their line of power tools. In the 1970s BD replaced customized parts with standardized components, interfaces, and connections in order to pool the part inventory and save on component inventory costs. Components included common screws, gears, and the motors which powered 122 different power tools. At a cost of $17 million over three years, BD was able to fully integrate its supply chain, reduce scrap rate from six percent to one percent, reduce failure rate from 11 percent to less than five percent, and reduce the selling price by half while still maintaining a 50 percent margin. BD was also able to reduce the number of suppliers and push its competition out of the market. This is one of the first cases of postponement using product platform design. Product platforms are also common in automotive and aircraft design. Lee, Billington, and Carter [20] discuss Hewlett-Packard’s strategy when it created a single platform for its DeskJet Plus, Deskwriter, Deskwriter Appletalk, and the DeskJet 500 series. A major source of variability for HP was the final shipping destination. HP ships its DeskJet Plus printers to North America, Europe, Asia, and the South Pacific. Each one requires a different power supply module and language manual. Under the â€Å"DC-localization† initiative printers are shipped from the manufacturing center in Vancouver and arrive at a local distribution center (DC) without language manuals or power supply modules. The DC supplies the remaining country specific features and packages the printers for final sale. This allows HP to pool the risk of stocking inventory by destination. Taking the process a step further, HP realized that Vancouver was close enough to the US where it could act as the local DC and hence two different types of printers are produced; US and non-US versions. This example illustrates how postponement is used in multiple ways for a single product. The designers at HP had to create a printer with a generic power supply port which is a form of assembly/production postponement. The local DCs had the job of assembling a final product complete with instruction manual, power supply, and the appropriate packaging material. Robert Stahl and Thomas Wallace [47] propose a framework for implementing postponement by classifying products according to two factors; product complexity – the number of product varieties, and speed – the time from customer order to delivery. This results in four levels of differentiation as shown in Figure 2. 1. [pic] Figure 2. 1: Complexity vs. Speed Matrix [47] Companies in each of the four quadrants have different challenges when adopting a postponement strategy. For example, a company in quadrant B produces a product that has very little variety but takes a long time to produce and deliver to the customer. Wallace and Stahl suggest that a company in this quadrant focus on speed by reducing the lead time from suppliers and expedite the delivery to the customer. They can accomplish this by implementing lean manufacturing initiatives, improving the work flow, and reexamining the location of their suppliers in terms of distance to the customer. This dilemma illustrates the trade-off between cost and service level. One way to take advantage of distant suppliers and still achieve fast delivery is to decouple the production process and hold inventory of intermediate product locally. Chapter 3 When is Postponement Appropriate? Postponement has the potential to lower the total delivered cost of a product. However, postponement does come with its own costs to implement and maintain. The benefits outweigh the costs when postponement is implemented correctly for the right type of product. For products with certain characteristics postponement allows companies to offer more variety, improve forecast accuracy, reduce inventories, and improve customer service levels. With these benefits come the costs of implementation and manufacturing. 3. 1 The Postponement/Speculation (P/S) Matrix Pagh and Cooper (1998) developed a simple but very powerful conceptual model to show the range of postponement strategies that could be adopted by companies. Four generic strategies were identified: full speculation, logistics postponement, manufacturing postponement and full postponement. These were presented in the form of a matrix as shown in Figure 3. | |Logistics | | | |Speculation |Postponement | |Manufacturing |Speculation |The full speculation strategy |The logistics postponement strategy | | | |low production and distribution costs |low production costs | | | |high customer service and high inventory |low/medium customer service and inventory | | | |costs |costs | | | | |high dist ribution costs | | |Postponement |The manufacturing postponement strategy |The full postponement strategy | | | |low distribution costs |low inventory costs and customer service | | | |medium to high production costs, |medium/high production costs | | | |inventory costs and customer service|high distribution costs | Figure 3. 1: The P/S Matrix (Source: Pagh & Cooper, 1998) The strategy of full speculation represents a complete reliance on forecasting, where all differentiating manufacturing operations are performed prior to the product being moved to different markets (‘push’ based system). The strategy of full postponement represents the highest level of delay in the supply chain (‘pull’ based system). As shown by Figure 3. 1, the decision about which strategy to use is essentially a tradeoff between different levels of customer service and inventory, production and distribution costs. 3. 2 Costs & Benefits of Postponement The question arises, when is the postponement strategy appropriate and when it is not? Where should a company position itself on the P/S matrix? In order to determine the most appropriate level of postponement that should be practiced, the benefits and the related costs must be weighed accurately. 3. 2. 1 More variety Having variety allows for a closer match between customer preferences and offered products leading to increased sales and (sometimes) increased prices. The build-to-order strategy pioneered by Dell shows how manufacturing a product according to customer specifications is one way to offer a large variety in a cost effective way. Dell offers enough options for their Dimension 4600C desktop to build over 100 million different computers using combinations of the components listed in Table 3. 1. Parts |Options | |Intel Pentium 4 |5 | |Operating Systems |5 | |Productivity Software |6 | |Memory |8 | |Hard Drive |4 | |Floppy/Storage Device |4 | |CD/DVD Drive |6 | |CD/DVD Software |4 | |Storage Devices and Media |2 | |Keyboards |3 | |Mouse |4 | |Monitor |9 | |Total Combinations |100million | Table 3. 1: Component List and Options for Dell 4600C Just like Burger King, Dell does not stock each of the 100 million varieties. Instead, they wait for customers to place an order before they build a machine. They have perfected this strategy so well that they are able to shape demand and produce popular combinations to forecast. Dell can offer discounts on combinations that are popular because of economies of scale and can carefully encourage customers to choose components that are in-stock using discounts. This strategy allows them to offer a quick turnaround and ensures that customers will not have to wait more than a week for a new product. Figure 3-2 shows a system dynamic loop measuring different factors that affect the number of product variety offerings. There are seven loops in the figure. The reinforcing loops (denoted by a positive arrow) show factors which increase the growth of product variety. The balancing loops (denoted by a negative arrow) show factors which inhibit the growth of variety. [pic] Figure 3-2: Systems dynamic loop showing product variety proliferation Loop one is a reinforcing loop that shows how variety grows because of the need to satisfy individual customers’ needs. The more customers see that their needs can be met, the greater their satisfaction in finding a unique product. This can force their expectations to be greater which narrows down markets even further. Loop two is a balancing loop that shows how a company reacts when it has captured most or all of the market, suppressing the need for innovation and excess product variety. Loop three is a reinforcing loop that shows what happens when there are multiple firms competing for market share. As a company’s customer base increases it continues to innovate and offer more variety as a competitive advantage. Loop four is a reinforcing loop that shows the effect of technology on product variety. Loop five is a balancing loop that suggests that customers will become saturated with information and buy the product which offers them the best value given their search costs (time and information processing). As the number of choices keeps growing, negative aspects of having a multitude of options begin to appear†¦ the negatives escalate until we become overloaded† [38]. When too much variety exists, companies must tradeoff between offering variety and holding inventory. Loop six is a balancing loop which shows how high variety is traditionally associated with higher unit costs. When the unit cost increases, the customer’s willingness to pay for that variety goes down unless the extra cost adds value to the customer, which is the goal of customization. Similarly, in loop seven, as production lead time increases, customer service levels drop and customers are less willing to wait for variety without some compensation in terms of added value. Loops six and seven are opportunities where postponement can change the direction of the loops from balancing to reinforcing negating the traditional trade-off that exists between higher costs and variety with poorer levels of service. Postponement allows for more variety through standardization and holding intermediate product inventory and better customer service though relocating final assembly closer to the customer. 3. 2. 2 Inventory reduction Reduction in inventory under a fixed level of service is another benefit of postponement. When companies increase variety they increase the number of SKUs they must maintain which translates into higher inventory costs. Each SKU is subject to different forecasts and therefore require different levels of safety stock. Safety stock buffers against sudden increases in demand. Holding safety stock ensures better customer service but is also expensive because of inventory holding costs. In a study of the effect of product variety on production-inventory systems, Benjaafar and Kim [8] found that inventory levels increased linearly with variety. They also found that cost was most sensitive to demand variability, capacity constraints, and set-up costs (assuming a fixed cost to switch the production line between products). This highlights the risk associated with having too much variety for products, especially those with high demand variability. Companies can mitigate this risk by standardizing parts, holding more work in process (WIP) inventory, and postponing customization. 3. 2. 3 Better forecast accuracy Delaying the final customization of a product until more information is available allows forecasters to make better predictions of finished product demand. In order to delay customization, however, it is necessary to define what features or components make a product unique. Figure 3-3 shows how postponement reduces the variability of end product demand and saves on total inventory cost. [pic] Figure 3-3: Demand accuracy of postponed and non-postponed operations over time Using Figure 3-3, suppose that coffee mugs come in five different colors. The demand for each color is an independent random variable normally distributed with mean ? i and standard deviation ? i where i = 1†¦ 5 for each of the different colors and ? i = ? ij and ? i = ? ij for all i and j. Total demand for mugs is N( i, v i2). The standard deviation for the demand of white mugs, v i2 , is less than the sum of the standard deviations of the individual demand, v i2, which explains why aggregate forecasts are less volatile. Additionally, forecasts generally improve over time therefore, ? i,T > ? i,t where T > t and ? i,t is the standard deviation in demand of mug i at time t. In this example, assume information about demand gained in the period up until time L/2 reduced the standard deviation of demand for each individual mug by half. Also, assume that at time L/2 the finishing time is equal to the customer’s willingness to wait. The producer is then forced to start painting the mugs at time L/2 to meet the customer demand on time. The variability of demand for mug color is more accurate at this point than it was at the start of the manufacturing process. It makes sense, then, to produce i or 5? uncolored mugs at time zero and then paint them at time L/2 assuming there are no additional switching costs incurred in this two-stage model. 3. 2. 4 Inventory cost reduction The amount of variety also affects inventory levels and hence, cost. The appropriate inventory level for a single SKU during a period of time consists of stocking the expected demand plus safety stock. Safety stock acts as a buffer to avoid stock-outs. Holding more safety stock improves customer service levels, but it comes at a cost. There are many formulas and practices for determining safety stock, however, this simple â€Å"fixed safety factor† approach assumes demand is normally distributed and is commonly used to determine the appropriate level of safety stock, ssi , given a certain level of customer service, ssi = k ? i (3. 1) In equation 3. 1 k is the safety stock factor which is based on a given level of service desired by the producer and _i is the standard deviation of the errors of forecasts over a given period of time. The amount of inventory, hi , to have at the beginning of an order cycle for a single SKU is given by hi = ? i + ssi (3. 2) Assuming that all colors of mugs have the same mean, ? , and standard deviation, ? , of forecast errors, total inventory, H, is a function of the number of varieties, n, H = n(? + ss) (3. 3) Without postponement, inventory cost increases exponentially, not linearly, withn. However, as mentioned above, if orders are aggregated and produced in unfinished form, the total overall variation decreases. For example, assume each mug has the same mean forecast, ? i = 50 and standard deviation or forecast error, ? i = 2 for all i. The company wants to maintain a customer service level of 98 percent which equates to a safety factor of k = 2. 05. A comparison of the amount of inventory required to satisfy the variability in demand at the beginning of the production cycle with and without postponement as variety increases is shown in Figure 3-4. [pic] Figure 3-4: FGI under postponed and non-postponed operations Not only is the amount of inventory less under postponement, the cost to hold a single SKU is also lower because the product is unfinished. There is still the cost of stocking components for the finishing process (paint) but it is less expensive to keep the mug in an uncommitted state and hold the paint in component form. 3. 2. 5 Logistics cost reduction The above mentioned case of postponement illustrates delayed customization involving painting the exterior of a pre-produced standardized good, a coffee mug. Many examples of postponement exist where points of differentiation occur as early as the design phase and as late as product labeling and packaging. A modular product design offers more opportunities for outsourcing non-core processes, like packaging and distribution, to third parties. This can happen both onshore and offshore depending on the location and distance of the end customer. In either case, the manufacturer can save money by shipping products in bulk instead of in packaged form which usually adds extra weight and volume. 3. 2. 6 Improved customer service levels Customer service levels are defined in terms of lead time – how long it takes an order to arrive, and item fill rate – how often orders are filled from inventory on hand. Providing customers with orders quickly can be the result of improvements in manufacturing processes or by repositioning inventory closer to the customer. Customer willingness to wait is a key factor when assessing a product for postponement and determining the location of the postponement point within the supply chain. If customers are willing to wait a long time for a product then there is no benefit from expediting orders or sourcing components or processes closer to the customer even if they can be done cheaper overseas. On the other hand, if customers are only willing to wait, for example, one week, then the supply chain must be structured so that the finishing lead time and delivery time is less than or equal to one week. This breakpoint between initial and finishing lead times is called the decoupling point and separates production into two stages. The length of time for the first stage is not visible to the customer and therefore all options for achieving lower manufacturing costs can be exhausted. The second stage of the supply chain (from intermediate product to delivery) must be structured in a way that offers the customer the highest level of service without sacrificing cost. 3. 2. 7 Increased product development cost Another cost of postponement is the cost of design. If a product does not already have a modular design but meets all of the necessary market characteristics then it is worth researching the cost of redesigning the product for postponement. The benefit of a modular design is the flexibility it creates for other products within a family. However, there is a balance between too much modularity and its effect on product variety. The risk of too much modularity is a lack of differentiation between products. In addition, the cost to switch manufacturing operations between varieties is sometimes responsible for reducing economies of scale that could otherwise result. In terms of cost, product redesign can take engineers months translating into increased research and development costs. 3. 2. 8 Increased manufacturing cost There is a considerable amount of financial investment and commitment required to reconstruct the supply chain to support postponement. Manufacturing cost per unit may increase due to a restructuring of the production process into two or more stages. There should be dedicated areas for postponed activities in a warehouse and easy access to loading docks. If all manufacturing is not done in-house (which is more likely than not) implementation may require additional facilities to support final assembly and distribution. This also requires more labor at a higher skill level to complete kitting, final assembly, and packaging as opposed to the lower skilled labor required for loading, storing, and sorting. Chapter 4 Case Studies The following case studies give detailed information about several companies that have adopted postponement in some capacity. It is worth understanding the motivations and risks that they incurred in order to understand how companies can determine whether their product is a candidate for postponement. Each case provides background on the company and product that is postponed, a description of the supply chain before and after postponement was adopted, the decoupling point between intermediate product and finished good, costs and benefits, and discusses how the supply chain is structured to take advantage of offshore manufacturing and local final assembly. 4. 1 Automobile Manufacturing: GM The auto industry is a prime candidate for postponement for many reasons. First, a car is defined as a modular system of components. This creates opportunity for commonality by producing a platform and adding modular subassemblies customized according to the make and model and ultimately the end user of the vehicle. Second, individually customized vehicles have high forecast variability. As this case points out there are far too many varieties to accurately forecast each combination and there is typically disagreement on the forecast within the different divisions of a company. Third, cars depreciate as soon as they are driven off the lot. New models come out each year which new features, technologies and capabilities. Lastly, high inventory holding cost. It is much riskier to hold a finished vehicle on the showroom floor than to have a partly finished good waiting for final customization because of the high forecast variability for end products and high product obsolescence cost. General Motors (GM) offers a unique look into customization during manufacturing and after the point of sale. By 2004, GM produced 68 different models in North America. There were over 200 facilities constituting 52 percent of their revenues. There were over 600 million combinations when all the different component variations and customer specific preferences (color, interior options) were considered. Forecasting was extremely difficult, considering these many combinations. Different divisions within GM used different methods of forecasting which further complicated the problem and led to excess inventory on the field. Searching for a way to create variety and mass customize beyond the idea of platforms, GM looked at software configuration, entertainment, and aesthetic features as a different way to use postponement. From a software standpoint, each of the systems within a vehicle can also be considered a unique central processing unit (CPU) made up of several electronic control units (ECUs). These include safety systems, engine, and transmission controls. In the 1990s there were only one or two ECUs in a vehicle. Now there are as many as 30-35 per vehicle because software is becoming increasingly essential in automobiles for voice recognition, global positioning systems, and entertainment. Before postponement, GM experienced the effects of product variety proliferation and high inventory costs of stocking ECUs for individual models. The ECUs came to GM in finished form with all of the software pre-loaded. Suppliers charged GM a premium for custom software installation which not only raised the price but also created problems with repair and maintenance. GM decided that they would assume the responsibility for software configuration and postpone the installation until the latest possible point in the assembly process. In order to accomplish this, GM had to redesign both the assembly process and the ECU hardware. In the mid-1990s GM achieved the capability to install custom software for individual orders towards the end of the vehicle assembly process. The ECU now comes from suppliers to GM in a generic form. The hardware is a common platform which can receive customized software in just 81 seconds. GM dealers also had to acquire the capability for flash programming for individual cars at the point of sale as well as after-market upgrades. After realizing that software could be postponed, GM looked at other systems that could be delayed until purchase. They recognized the emergence of the accessory market for vehicles as another way to differentiate and increase revenues. Entertainment systems have become far more sophisticated over the years and offer key differential options on a vehicle. Because of the plug-and-play capability, entertainment systems can be uploaded into the vehicle at the dealer. Another key differentiator is the wheel set. Dealers are very involved in putting specialized wheels on a car to make it more desirable. Through the use of the internet, GM introduced an on-line purchasing website. Customers can log on to GMbuypower. com and point and click their way to the car of their dreams. GM offers a 99 percent guarantee that they will deliver the vehicle within one day of the projected delivery day to a dealer close to the customer. By 2004, about 18 percent of the cars in assembly at GM were custom made and 82 percent were made-to-stock for dealers and showrooms. The goal is to move to 60-80 percent custom orders but the shift is happening in different markets at different rates. GM is experiencing the benefits of postponement through delayed software configuration and customization. In a study to estimate the benefits of postponement, GM, along with MIT and Stanford University, developed a cost model which projected inventory cost savings to be 10-15 percent. Other benefits included maintenance cost savings due to the highly communized ECU hardware and having GM software engineers solve repair issues instead of sending parts back to suppliers. GM’s main goal, however, is to create a more flexible supply chain that can handle higher throughput and is more responsive to immediate demand. 4. 2 Aircraft Manufacturing: Embraer The commercial aircraft production at Embraer provides an example of production and assembly postponement in the airline industry. The motivation for postponement was to focus on â€Å"optimizing cash flow† by creating a flexible supply chain that can provide the right airplane to the right airline company. In other words, the goal is to give customers the ability to change their decision regarding customizable features, or to cancel an order completely, by designing the aircraft to accept these changes as late in production as possible. In response to the changing dynamics within the aircraft industry Embraer differentiates its new family of regional jets based on the number of seats. The new family of regional jets, the Embraer 170, 175, 190 and 195, focuses on a high degree of parts commonality as all four jets have exactly the same cockpit and fly-by-wire systems. Embraer decided to implement postponement in order to make its supply chain more flexible and able to respond quickly to changes in demand. This was evident when a customer, US Air, had to cancel an order for six ERJ 170 aircraft because of financial constraints in October 2004. With the majority of the production complete it was too costly to go back and change any of the customized features and reconfigure it for another airline. Embraer developed a strategy for postponing as much of the high value features, like engine type, software, radar devices, and interior specifications as possible. Not only did it save on costs, the flexibility to change order specifications became an attractive alternative to backing out of an order or having to pay for costly reconfigurations. The current supply chain at Embraer is structured to allow for two postponement points throughout the production cycle as illustrated in Figure 4. 1. The first point occurs roughly one year before delivery to the customer where the platform is differentiated based on product family (170 versus 190 family of aircraft). Six to eight months later it will assume the configurations, engine, software and hardware which distinguish it as a 170 versus a 175 or 190 versus a 195 aircraft. After this point the customer specific features such as seating arrangements, galley configurations, and tail art are added. [pic] Figure 4. 1: Lead time break down of value added components and features Embraer still builds-to-order because of the high cost to hold a finished airplane in inventory. The white tail concept (analogous to a â€Å"vanilla box†) allows the production processes to begin and run in parallel with some of the steps that usually take a long time to complete such as certification for safety, avionics, and entertainment systems. Total lead time for production is usually 24-36 months because of the long lead time for suppliers. Production begins 12 months before delivery and the order is considered 90 percent â€Å"frozen† or unchanging. However, some customers change their mind within the final month of production. Embraer is committed to developing the idea of postponement further within the company. Any flexibility that can be gained through delaying the customization makes Embraer jets more attractive to a customer facing the uncertainties of the aircraft industry. Engine, avionics, interior and galley layout are some of the hardest subassemblies to change and also have the highest value. The white tail concept allows Embraer to have flexible production in its new family of 170/190 aircraft. They do hold some inventory of semi-finished aircraft that await orders from larger companies in the corporate jet market because the orders are more predictable. Embraer represents a company that is practicing postponement and is not seeing huge savings in inventory. Instead they redesigned their process to accommodate the addition of components based on value to the customer and degree of customization. Better service levels and customer satisfaction give Embraer a competitive advantage in a very competitive market. 4. 3 Clinical Equipments: Dade Behring Dade Behring (DB) is an industry leader in clinical diagnostic equipment and reagents. Their customers include over 25,000 hospitals and reference laboratories which require instruments that analyze human fluids such as blood and urine. They have global operations in more than 34 countries and currently deliver products in six main areas: Chemistry, Immunochemistry, Hemostasis, Plasma Protein, Microbiology, and Infectious Disease Diagnostics. DB diagnostic instruments are high value with a retail price ranging from $20,000 to over $200,000. Demand forecasting is a challenge due to long buying cycles ranging anywhere from six months to two years. Forecasts are generally compiled from sales representatives’ predictions. Because of the high cost of the products, the decision making process and financial constraints of the customers, it is somewhat difficult to know when products will be ordered. Additionally, instruments were designed/ configured to local country power requirements which exasperated the forecasting impact. As a result, DB was plagued with less than optimum service levels for some instruments and higher than planned inventories for others. All of these conditions were catalysts for a postponement strategy, which became even more important as a result of an industry-wide European directive. The first postponement strategy involved designing flexible power capability into the Dimension Chemistry/Immunochemistry analyzers that Dade Behring designed and produced. Originally Dimension was offered in either a 110 V or 220 V power versions. To optimally manage inventories of these instruments, DB collaborated with an external supplier to replace the power supply module with a universal power supply. During the redesign phase engineers were able to develop the universal module at a lower cost because of advanced technology which was previously unavailable. The cost to produce the universal module was actually less expensive than supplying two different versions. Then, a second postponement strategy was put into place due to the European IVDD initiative. In 1998, the In Vitro Diagnostics Directive (IVDD) was ublished as the third of three European directives which required medical and diagnostic equipment to come packaged with local language manuals and labeling. The regulation gave 17 countries the right to specify the national language that would come available with each instrument for which they contracted. In total 12 different language manual s were eventually required. The instrument manuals are approximately 350 pages in length and therefore it did not make sense to create a single manual with all 12 languages included nor package 12 different manuals with each instrument. DB initiated the switch to language specific packaging in the industry through the postponement of packaging materials at distribution centers and flexible language capability within the operating software. This is a straight forward process accomplished by marrying a language specific accessory box to the instrument during the shipment process. Shortly after achieving successful packaging operations, DB initiated another postponement strategy in their Chemistry product line. This next strategy was to redesign the product so that it could be configured-to-order at the end of the assembly process. There are currently four variations of the Dimension Chemistry/Immunochemistry Analyzer Series. Dimension is offered as RxL Max Basic and RxL Max HM (heterogeneous model), or as an Xpand Plus Basic and Xpand Plus HM. Through a carefully designed manufacturing process, Dade Behring is able to manufacture a specific model as soon as that specific model is shipped to fill a customer order. This strategy involved the redesign of the manufacturing process so that the analyzer could be configured-to-order at the end of the assembly process. This meant that all of the commonalities between the two different variations of each model would be combined into an intermediate product that would be produced to a forecast, stored as intermediate inventory, and configured-to-order once an order was received. The redesign phase took a team of engineers six months to make changes and train workers on the assembly line. The supply chain as shown in Figure 4. 2 became vastly more efficient and service levels increased dramatically. [pic] Figure 4. 2: Dade Behring supply chain Customer service levels improved and inventory was significantly reduced by eliminating the need to store high value finished goods. Inventory across the supply chain was reduced through a 50 percent reduction in â€Å"buffer† or safety stock. Service levels went from oscillating between 70-100 percent to greater than 98 percent. Once DB was able to improve service time to customers they started looking at their distribution centers and found opportunities to improve distribution strategies, given the improved flow of instruments through the manufacturing process. Because the opportunity cost of a lost sale in this industry is very high, distribution centers would store finished goods as a way to mitigate the risk of instrument shipment delays. However, when service levels improved, DB found that they could eliminate 50 percent of their global buffer inventory by eliminating the stocking of instruments in distribution centers in Asia and Canada, and reducing inventory levels in Latin America. Their primary instrument warehouses in the US and Europe service their global instrument distribution needs. The make-to-order and inventory management strategy provides DB with a decisive advantage in the industry. This is a classic example of the benefits of the successful implementation of postponement. Because of this success, DB was able to continue developing postponement in other lines of instruments. Today, more than 85 percent of instrument production at DB involves some form of postponement compared to less than five percent five years ago. By redesigning the Dimension instruments to be easily adaptable for configuration, DB realized that the product could also be easily de-configured back to the intermediate stage to support the secondary market for instruments. 4. 4 Sports Goods Manufacturing: Reebok As a licensed supplier for the NBA and NHL and principle supplier for the NFL, Reebok knows the difficulties that come with satisfying the demand of a very â€Å"fair weather† crowd. When teams do well more team apparel is demanded. The demand for a player specific jersey is inherently more volatile than for a given team. Meeting customer requirements within a short period of time is a major challenge in the sporting goods industry. Sales of t-shirts and jerseys are not too predictable because Reebok does not know which teams will be â€Å"hot† at the beginning of the season. Demand for jerseys averages 30,000 per week or 1. 5 million each year. The different choices of team name, player name, color scheme, and size makes it extremely difficult to predict demand of an individual item during the pre-season. The idea of postponement in this industry is not new. Images of silk-screen companies working overtime minutes after an NCAA basketball championship game, illustrates the idea of postponement. These manufacturers know that it is better to wait until there is certainty about the outcome of a game before producing apparel with the losing team’s name on it. As a result they keep white or blank shirts on hand ready for printing. At this point in the supply chain it would not make sense to put in an order for finished shirts from scratch to an overseas manufacturer (even if it costs less to make the shirt). The long lead time would mean missing the increase in sales generated within two weeks after a big win. This can be anything from an important mid-season upset, a new player entering the roster, players becoming â€Å"hot†, or the end of season championships. Reebok recognized this as an opportunity to restructure the supply chain to cater to both stable items – finished apparel that is produced to a forecast much earlier in the season, and customized apparel. The difference in the lead time for both of these items is significant. Retailers expect lead time to be 3-12 weeks for the stable items and as little as one week for the â€Å"hot† items. Reebok outsource the cutting and sewing of fabric to contract manufacturers in Central America. Some of the jerseys sent to Reebok are finished meaning that there is a customized team and player name already on the garment. Other jerseys, called â€Å"team finished† jerseys are sent with everything but a player’s name. These go straight to a distribution center that Reebok owns and operates in Indianapolis. The blank or team finished jerseys help satisfy two different types of demand. The first is for the hot players or players who sign with a team late in the pre-season and the second is for the players who have a small, but somewhat predictable demand. [pic] Figure 4. 3: Reebok Supply Chain According to Figure 5. the blank jerseys arrive in the US and are ready for screen printing and embroidering. The decision to have a separate facility in the US is a result of the end customer’s unwillingness to wait. Fans expect to find the jersey they are looking for in a store. There is a chance they will be less likely to want one if they have to wait weeks to get it – especially when an NFL team only plays 16 games per season. At a price of $25 for a long-sleeve t-shirt or $250 for an authentic jersey, the cost of lost sales is greater than the cost to ship, unpack, finish and reship a jersey from a local finishing center. Reebok is a classic example of two-stage production with postponement. They are able to take advantage of lower labor costs for the production of blank jerseys and optimize service levels by souring the final assembly in the US. This also creates local jobs in the areas of textile and silk-screen printing. 4. 5 Xilinx Xilinx is a semi-conductor manufacturer with headquarters in San Jose, CA. The semi-conductor industry is very volatile due to the wide variety of products and short product life cycle. Semi-conductors manufacturers are supplied to OEMs in the telecom, small electronics, and aerospace industries. However, they have a supply chain of their own which requires assembling and configuring wafers of silicon into programmable dies which later become integrated circuits. Their position in this multi-echelon supply chain makes forecasting for specific end product demand costly, impractical, and very inaccurate. In addition, semiconductor manufacturing is quickly becoming a commoditized process. Comparative intellectual and technological benefits that leaders in this industry were accustomed to are now becoming less of a competitive advantage. The focus has shifted from intellectual advantage to supply chain efficiency as a means of differentiation. The life cycle for an integrated circuit is anywhere from six months to two years. During that time new technology will make existing products obsolete. Having long manufacturing lead times cripples a company’s ability to quickly respond to these changes as well as changes in customer specific orders. Having a generic product and creating a postponement point separating a die with generic qualities and one with a specific logic configuration allow them to respond quickly and offer flexibility to their customers. Xilinx began with a combination of both process and product postponement. Product postponement was implemented by redesigning the dies to a certain range of parameters for the different characteristics. For example, there are four major sources of variety in an integrated circuit; speed, number of logic gates, package types, and voltage. Customers can specify generic capabilities and can customize the chip to their specific specifications after the fabrication stage. The amount of variety makes postponement very beneficial. Xilinx can manufacture 200 different dies that can proliferate into over 4,000 different end product combinations. That makes the ratio of generic dies to end products roughly 1:20. The manufacturing process is broken up into two stages. Suppose a certain generic die, A, can be configured to take on 20 different configurations, {A1, A2, A3, †¦ , A20). When a customer requests the specifications, they only need to specify the generic die. Once it is pulled from â€Å"A† inventory, it is customized to a certain degree depending on customer order specifications. This specification can take place at Xilinx for high volume orders or it can be delayed even further so that the point of customization occurs at the customer. Approximately 20 percent fall into the high volume category and the remaining 80 percent are left for customization at the customer. The final customization is a matter of programming the software within the chip. By eliminating this process from the front end (manufacturing) process, Xilinx cut manufacturing lead time from three months to three weeks. Manufacturing usually takes place in Taiwan or Japan and then product sits in inventory at Xilinx awaiting testing. Testing facilities are located in Korea, Taiwan, and Japan. While postponement has reduced inventory and helped Xilinx meet customer requirements with more accuracy and on-time deliveries, it is just the beginning. Postponement within the semiconductor industry will extend far beyond customer configuration capabilities. Chapter 5 Conclusion The case studies presented in this paper come from a wide variety of industries. Each company was successful in implementing postponement for similar reasons, but have seen a wide variety of results. The most common strategic motivation for starting postponement were to improve service level and to reduce inventory holding cost as a result of an increase in product variety. One of the key factors in successful implementation is product modularity. If a product is not inherently modular, a successful postponement strategy requires a redesign of the product or a rethinking of product definition. In the cases of small consumables, the end product is not a razor blade or a disk, but rather a finished configured package destined for a particular retail outlet. The relationship between forecast variability and the decision between a make-to- stock or a build-to-order strategy is also a common factor. Products with stable demand stand to gain little from a postponement strategy because there is little benefit for delaying production when sales are committed. On the other hand, products with high variability gain from postponement because there is no commitment to final configuration until the order is placed. A company should determine the location of variability when deciding to implement postponement. Variability can be caused by product variety, unreliability of customer orders, seasonality, trends, promotional activities, or it can be a result of the supply chain itself. Varia

Succubus on Top CHAPTER 24

Seth had chided me for being late, but with five daughters, the Mortensens were always running late. So no one, except Seth, really paid much attention to my tardiness. Likewise, with so much chaos, no one really noticed that he and I didn't talk much. The girls spoke more than enough for all of us, and I took some comfort in their presence. As always, they couldn't get enough of me, crawling all over me and tugging at my sleeve to make sure they had my undivided attention. I enjoyed it all in a bittersweet sort of way. Convinced Seth and I were on the verge of a break-up, I mostly kept thinking that this would be the last time I would hang out with this wonderful family. Andrea provided us with an equally distracting birthday/Thanksgiving meal. Terry and Seth had helped her, it turned out, but I still marveled that they had pulled it off while still managing the little ones. I said as much to Andrea. â€Å"Parenthood makes you the ultimate multitasker,† she informed me. â€Å"You'll see what I mean when you have kids.† I smiled back politely, not bothering to tell her there'd be no kids for me. â€Å"Besides,† Terry said with a grin, â€Å"we understand you're already sort of a superwoman. Seth was telling us about some crazy shindig you threw together at the bookstore?† â€Å"Uncle Seth said it was cool,† added Brandy. â€Å"It was a fest,† I corrected, glancing at Seth in surprise. I couldn't figure out at all what his feelings were for me. He'd invited me over and had apparently been singing my praises. None of that jibed with the fallout I expected from the Bastien incident, nor his initial stunned reaction to it. Seth opened presents after dinner, the bulk of which were books and more contributions to his wacky T-shirt collection. â€Å"Where's your present?† Kendall asked me. â€Å"I left it at home.† We all hung out and talked after that, my apprehension mounting as I wondered where this evening would lead. When the party finally disbanded, Seth asked me if I wanted to go somewhere. I took a deep breath. It was now or never. â€Å"Let's go to my place.† Once back there, we stationed ourselves on my couch – at a proper distance – and talked about everything except our relationship. I told him about my new position and got his congratulations. He told me about some interesting fan comments he'd received at the signing. When this had gone on for nearly thirty minutes, I couldn't take it any more. â€Å"Seth, what's going on?† I demanded. â€Å"With us.† He leaned his head back against the couch. â€Å"I wondered when we'd get to this. Can't avoid it any longer, huh?† â€Å"Well, yeah. This is a big deal. This isn't like a dispute over where to go for dinner†¦this is us. Our future. I mean, I†¦you know. You know what I did.† â€Å"I do.† He studied my ceiling for a moment, then turned his amber brown eyes on me. In that moment, I almost understood why he always seemed to be staring somewhere else. When he turned his eyes directly on you, it was a hard and powerful thing. They were electric. â€Å"Aren't I allowed to forgive you?† â€Å"Er†¦no. Well, I don't know.† This conversation echoed the one I'd had with Bastien earlier. He had said the same thing, and after weighing everything, I'd decided it wasn't worth being mad at him. Was it so easy to forgive the ones you loved? â€Å"I won't lie, Thetis, it hurt. It still does. But, in some ways†¦well, it's only one step away from what you normally do.† â€Å"A big step.† He laughed. â€Å"Whose side are you on? Are you trying to turn me against you?† â€Å"I'm just trying to make sure you stand up for yourself.† â€Å"You're always worried about that. Don't worry. I'm not a complete doormat.† â€Å"I didn't mean that. I just†¦I don't know. I'm not very good at this dating thing.† â€Å"I know that. Neither am I. I've done plenty of stupid things in my past relationships. I deserve a few karmic turnabouts. Of course, that doesn't mean I want this to become an ongoing thing, but one mistake†¦one mistake I can forgive. If I haven't had much practice dating, you've got to be even worse after, what, how many years of casual, uh, flings?† â€Å"A lot,† I replied vaguely. For some reason, I was reluctant to tell Seth my age. He picked up on that, his eyes narrowing ruefully. â€Å"And right there. That's another thing. Almost worse than what happened. You're doing it again.† â€Å"Doing what?† â€Å"You don't tell me things. Things about you. It's like you're afraid to show me who you are. But like I said, that's what love is. You open yourself up. I want to know you. I want to know everything about you. Sometimes I feel like no matter how strongly I feel about you†¦I still don't know you at all.† â€Å"I'm not very good at that part either,† I said softly. Seth pulled me into an embrace, crushing me against him. There was a fierceness in that motion, an unflinching sense of possession that stirred my blood. â€Å"You're my world right now, Georgina, but I can't go on with this†¦not if there's no honesty.† His tone was gentle and loving, but I heard the warning between the lines. I'd had my fuckup. The next time, I would not get such amnesty. This terrified me a little, yet I was proud of him and realized I had a lot more to learn about him too. He had every right to be laying down the law. He was not a doormat. I regretted my mistakes, and while I was glad to be forgiven this time, I didn't want Seth to waste his life on me if I couldn't ever treat him right. My young French lover, Etienne, had never recovered. I'd learned years later that he'd broken his engagement, staying forever single. He'd thrown himself into his painting, earning a small following. Several portraits of me – as a blond Josephine – still hung in private European collections. Etienne had not been able to get me out of his system, and it had made a mess of him. I wanted things to work with Seth so badly. I wanted us to be together and be happy for as long as we could manage it. But if we couldn't, I didn't want him to waste his life on me as that young painter had. â€Å"I love you,† I murmured into Seth's shoulder, astonished when the words just slipped out. And I realized then just how much I meant them. He inhaled deeply and held me even tighter, and I felt the love pouring off of him, even with no spoken declaration. â€Å"I'm pretty sure I don't deserve you.† â€Å"Oh, my Thetis, you deserve a lot of things. And honestly† – he shifted around and studied me – â€Å"as much as it hurts†¦I'm sort of glad that you, you know, had that chance with Bastien.† I frowned. â€Å"That chance to be with a copy of you?† â€Å"Well, no. That's still kind of weird. I mean the chance to have sex and, well, enjoy it. Every time I think about what you do on a regular basis†¦Ã¢â‚¬  He closed his eyes a moment. â€Å"I just envision you being raped over and over. And I hate it. It makes me sick. I'm glad you were with someone you cared about†¦even if it wasn't me. You deserve to have good sex for a change.† â€Å"You do too,† I said, overwhelmed by Seth's nonstop selflessness. â€Å"And you know†¦if you ever wanted to find someone and just, well, have sex for the fun of it†¦well, you could. You know, just to fulfill the physical need. I wouldn't mind.† I didn't think I would, at least. I uneasily recalled my slight jealousy over his correspondence with Maddie. He looked at me seriously. â€Å"I don't have sex just to fulfill a need. Not if I can help it. Sex may not be a requisite part of love, but it is an expression of love. It should at least be with someone you care about.† The answer didn't surprise me. In fact, it suddenly reminded me of something. â€Å"Hey, I've got something for you.† Despite our dire romantic status, I had nonetheless chosen twenty of the best pictures Bastien had taken of me and had Hugh print them this week. I hadn't known until now that I'd actually be able to give them to Seth. I found them in my bedroom, bound with a pink ribbon. â€Å"Your birthday present.† I started to hand the pictures over. â€Å"Wait,† he said. He opened up the messenger bag he carried his laptop around in. A moment later, he offered me several sheets of paper. I gave him the pictures. We sat in silence, each of us studying our respective offerings. For half a second, I thought he was sharing a manuscript after all. A few lines into it, I realized it was addressed to me. It was the writing he'd promised me a while back. The detailed exposition of all the things he wished we could do. Reading it, I sort of lost track of the world around me. What he'd written was exquisite. Some of it was like poetry. A beautifully crafted ode to my beauty and my body and my personality that made my heart swell. Other parts were brazenly explicit. Hot and steamy. They made O'Neill and Genevieve's elevator look like a kindergarten classroom. I could feel the blood rushing to my cheeks as I read. When I finished, I looked up at him breathlessly. He was watching me, as the pictures had taken less time to peruse. â€Å"I take it all back,† he told me, holding up one of the shots. It showed me sitting crosswise in a chair, naked. My legs draped over the edge lazily, showing a nice view of my pink painted toenails. A hardbound copy of one of Seth's books sat on my lap. â€Å"Sex might be a requisite part of love after all.† I glanced down at the manifesto. â€Å"Yeah. It just might be.† We sat there a moment, then burst out laughing. He rubbed his eyes. â€Å"Thetis,† he said wearily, â€Å"what are we going to do with ourselves?† â€Å"I don't know. Do the pictures just make things worse?† â€Å"No. They're wonderful. Thank you. They're a good way of having you†¦even if I can't have the real thing.† An idea slowly coalesced in my mind. The pictures just involved looking. Looking was safe. And one didn't just have to look at a two-dimensional image. â€Å"Maybe†¦maybe you can have the real thing.† He gave me a quizzical look, and I hastily amended: â€Å"In a hands-off way. Come on.† â€Å"This seems dangerous,† he said when I led him to the bedroom. Sunset was filling the room with mood lighting. I pointed to a chair in the corner. â€Å"Sit there.† I moved to the opposite corner, hoping it was enough space. â€Å"What are you – Oh.† He bit off his words, swallowing. â€Å"Oh.† I slid my hands slowly up over my hips and breasts, over to the top button of my blouse. Slowly, deliberately, I unfastened the button. Then, just as carefully, I moved down to the next button. And the next. Then I unbound my hair, letting it fall messily over my shoulders. A striptease is all about letting go of self-consciousness. And it's about pacing too, I supposed. Admittedly, doing a show in front of Seth, whom I loved, moved into a realm I felt a little unfamiliar with. Nervous energy twitched inside me, but I didn't show it on the outside. I was on the stage, and I moved through my steps with sultry confidence, watching my own hands sometimes and making eye contact with him at others. This was part of my gift to him. He obviously liked seeing my body, even if, for the moment, he watched like one frozen, eyes wide and face carefully controlled. The blouse eventually fell to the floor, followed by the skirt. I'd had bare legs earlier today but had covertly shape-shifted on thigh-highs while we walked to the bedroom. Left only in those and a cherry-red bra and panty set made of satin, I languidly moved my body in smooth and alluring ways as I played with edges and straps. The stockings came off next, each one rolled down with delicate motions that let my hands slide against my own skin. Left in almost nothing, I savored the shining satin, trailing my fingertips over the bra and panty's surfaces. At last they peeled off too, and I was left in only my skin, left fully exposed and with a surprising heat burning in my lower body. I had turned myself on as much as him. I stood there a moment, like I was taking in applause before an audience, then started to walk across the room. â€Å"No,† he said, voice thick and husky. His fingers dug into the chair's arms. â€Å"You'd better not get too close.† I stopped, laughing softly. â€Å"You don't strike me as the assaulting type, Mortensen.† â€Å"Yeah, well, there's a first time for everything.† â€Å"So you liked?† â€Å"Very much.† His eyes were drinking me in, ravenous and needful. â€Å"That was the best thing I've ever seen.† Pleased, I stretched out my muscles, holding my arms over my head a moment before exhaling and letting my hands fall. As they did, I ran them down over my breasts and thighs in a careless gesture I didn't really even think about. Yet, as I did it, I saw his posture stiffen slightly and that fire in his eyes flare up. A slow, dangerous smile spread over my face. â€Å"What?† he asked. â€Å"I don't think the show's over yet.† I sat back on the bed, then slid myself up so I was propped up against the pillows in full view. Watching him and his every reaction, I moved my hands up to my breasts, feeling them. But these were not the touches that came with a sensual undressing. These were caresses of a different sort. A more urgent sort. I want to see you in the throes of orgasm, Seth had written in his missive. I want to see your whole body writhing, your lips open as you drink in your own pleasure. Only yours, no one else's. Just you, completely given up to ecstasy. I stroked my breasts, cupping them, feeling their softness and curving shape. My fingers moved and stroked my nipples, teasing them further, moving in lazy circles. I ran my thumbs over them, reveling in their sensitivity. When my breasts were finally taut and aching, I let my hands travel down over my smooth and flat stomach, examining and lingering on every part until I reached my thighs. Parting them ever so slightly, I slipped two fingers between the waiting lips so I could stroke that throbbing knot of nerves, moaning without even realizing it. Something about Seth watching aroused me more than I'd expected. I was dripping with wetness, aching and scorching. I slid my fingers over and over that burning, swelling spot, stoking the rapidly growing need. Arching my body, hearing the soft cries escaping from me, all I could think about was Seth's eyes on me. Doing this for him, was in many ways, more genuine than actual sex with Bastien-turned-Seth had been. This was as intimate as he and I could ever be. It wasn't exactly the same as the honest communication we kept talking about, but in a way, I was opening myself to him after all. Exposing myself without inhibition. I kept expecting the succubus energy-need to pick up on this scam, but either the distance or the fact that I was doing this to myself continued to trick it. We'd found a loophole after all. As my fingers continued to rub between my lips, bringing me closer and closer to that crest, I moved my other hand down and thrust a couple of fingers inside of me. This elicited a moan of yearning, and I opened my thighs further, letting Seth get a full view. Faster and harder both sets of fingers worked, touching everything, building and building up that delicious pleasure until I felt like I couldn't take it anymore. Like I was going to burst. And then, I did. Sparks and lightning shot through my body, radiating from my core outward until every part of me tingled with life. I cried out again, loudly, my body writhing against the sheets as spasms racked my muscles. What had started as an ostentatious show had become something more. Doing this for Seth – with Seth – had reawakened something sleeping inside of me. I had lost control; my own body had taken over. When I finally calmed down, I lay back against the covers, my breathing shallow as I recovered myself. I could feel sweat all over me. And with that physical response, an emotional and almost spiritual one radiated through me as well. Like the experience had somehow lit a flame within me. One that hadn't died with the orgasm. One that had nearly gone cold once – long ago – but now shone fiercely. A moment later, I heard Seth stand up. Gingerly, he moved to my side, just barely sitting on the bed. We stared at each other, neither of us speaking, our eyes conveying all we needed to each other. He reached out a hand, like he might stroke my cheek, then pulled back. â€Å"I'm afraid to touch you,† he whispered. â€Å"Yeah. It might†¦might be wise to hold back on that for a little longer. Just in case it kicks in.† â€Å"I take back what I said earlier about the stripping. This was the best thing I've ever seen.† He crooked me a smile. â€Å"No, you're the best thing I've ever seen. Everything about you.† I smiled back. â€Å"We might have found a workaround.† â€Å"For you maybe. As it is, I'm, uh, feeling a little†¦uncomfortable right now. I'm glad you were able to get a release, at least.† I suddenly sat up, energized. â€Å"Well, why can't you?† His smile dropped. â€Å"What? Like in the bathroom?† â€Å"No. Right here.† â€Å"You're joking.† â€Å"No.† I could feel my lips turning into a mischievous smirk. â€Å"Fair is fair. Quid pro quo. I did it for you, now it's your turn.† â€Å"I†¦no. No. I can't do that.† â€Å"Sure you can. There's nothing to it.† â€Å"Yeah, but†¦Ã¢â‚¬  â€Å"No buts. You're the one going on about openness and sharing. â€Å" â€Å"Whoa. That's not even the same.† â€Å"It is.† I rolled over so that I was not quite in a pouncing position, but pretty close. I gave him a smoldering look. â€Å"How do you think I was able to do all that? I thought about you. I thought about you being over me while I spread my body for you. I opened up to you. I let you see everything. I wanted you to have that part of me. Nothing held back. And now I want to see the same.† I leaned close, starting to tug his shirt off. â€Å"I want to see you come. I want to see you give in to that desire. I want to see your face when you touch yourself and think about me.† â€Å"And they say I'm good with words.† He closed his eyes for a moment. â€Å"I can't believe you can have this effect on me.† I pulled his Spam shirt over his head. â€Å"I'm waiting.† Seth stared at me, then carefully and hesitantly began taking off his pants. He tossed them on the floor and moved on to his adorable flannel boxers. He paused there, clearly nervous, and then removed them in a quick motion before he could turn back. I looked him over admiringly, seeing him naked for the first time. As my gaze lingered between his legs, I had to work to keep a straight face. Bastien hadn't done him justice. â€Å"This is going to be hard,† he observed. â€Å"It already looks hard to me.† â€Å"Stop making jokes.† â€Å"Sorry. Just relax, that's the key.† I sat back away from him, putting some distance between us once again. â€Å"Drop the self-consciousness. Just give in to how you feel.† He nodded and took a deep breath. â€Å"Thanks, coach. Can you move over to your side – yeah. There. And then, the hand†¦yes, put it right there. Perfect.† He shook his head, an almost comic look of misery and eagerness on his face as his hand slowly moved down. â€Å"I need a good view of you to pull this off, I think, so I can keep my eyes off me. If I pay too much attention to what I'm doing, the absurdity will hit. â€Å" â€Å"Well then,† I said, getting comfortable. â€Å"Don't look down.†

Dali Art

Fruit Dish on a Beach This painting is hanging above my bed, I see it on a daily basis and always can think of something new when I look at it. This is Salvador Dalais abstract art in which he does best. Dali is a well-known Spaniard surrealist. The name of the painting is The Apparition of Face and Fruit Dish on a Beach. The artwork is so odd causing the explanation to be hard. Illusionist's Surrealism is one form of art that is portrayed very well in dalais artwork.The Big picture looking at it from afar you will see a dog, a table, wine glass, or the human face. If you look at the fine detail you will find lots of interesting and abstract additions to this art. The upper center part in the background you will see two hilltops one of them covered in grass and the other rocky landscape. The right hand corner there is another grassy hill terrain right above the dogs head. Appears to be clear skies on the left with a stormy approach from the right. Like the water coming to feed the dr y spot on the sandy and desert like terrain.I really think it is interesting as you look at the eye of the dog it acts as a peephole and you can see the scenic background through it. Underneath the dogs snout you will see a desert like environment with several trees and it includes a black and white horse playing. There is a hidden face as well, which I find very out of place or abstract. It looks like pears on the edge of the dogs body with the horizon landscape behind. The rear hip of the dog looks almost like a clipping from â€Å"A starry night† almost. It is like a sunset or sunrise scene with what looks to be like waves.If go right to towards the center it looks like a scene from hell with fire, bones, skeletons, vase, a broken vase and woven basket. The vase is the left eye in the face with the right eye being a dead baby or could be sleeping. He has arranged things in this painting so uniquely. The center of the painting where it appears to be shaped like a wine glass almost creates a tunnel or funnel for the bodies on the right side falling down into darkness. The dog collar seems as a bridge over the river coming down into the goblet with pears into. It almost is like eggs going over to this dungeon type room.It has a man standing there without a face drying him off as if he Just finished showering. On the other side of the wall where the man is standing there sitting looks as if he was writing. He is wearing a Arabic type covering over his head. Something you would see someone wearing in a desert. In the dungeon type room in the paintings two guys as skeletons which one looks like a pirate. There is a child who is reaching for something or maybe the loss of the one who looks to be a skeleton. Below that you will see what seems like a blotched over a straight line or end of the table.There is a broken rope hanging over the edge with a cloth as well Just sitting there as well as couple egg shaped objects scattered through out the table. There i s a small goblet with pears, maybe where he came up with the fruit dish on the beach part of the name. This is the best-detailed description I can give. This painting always makes me think and wonder what is his overall theory what brought every part of it together. I think that he choose this though to represent the two sides of a sunny day or a stormy one. The eve of life and death with his beloved dog as well.I am convinced that this twisted painting can be interpreted into the dream life that he had imagined for America. It has each odd piece of the artwork as multiple purposes or visions. For example the odd vase in the middle of the picture ends up being the eye of the face, which is evolved from the other parts. The meaning would be far few and between. Artist's thoughts may never be revealed but in my opinion I have come to the conclusion that he was so confused as to what the American dream was or what it might entail. He obviously loves dogs.Enjoys the beach with the waves . Pears are most likely one of his favorite fruits. He shows the beauty of the women's smile. This picture also shows the afterlife or imaging death at the end of the dream. I was lead to believe that by all the bones and dark parts of the picture. It has a gloomy and dark side to it. With the table edge and rope hanging off brings a depressing side to it. Overall I love this artwork and I don't really see the dark side of it as a strong influence. I almost see past it because of the white space it really overtakes the dark I think.This painting is something that I wouldn't imagine someone today coming up with anything like it. Inspired by Dali or not this is one very unique piece of work. The formal elements as I understand the space is one of the best used. The open white space with the tablecloth and the face is very well distinguishable appearing lust as blank space. The composition is really out of whack until you more understand or observe all of the parts involved. The color is very pastel and light. Lines or defined with the horizon and the table edge. I really enjoy all the artwork Dali has put together.

East and South East Asia Differences Term Paper

East and South East Asia Differences - Term Paper Example The Asian Economic Miracle: Asian "Tigers" According to Chong (284), the Southeast Asian "tigers" is terminology whose usage is in reference to the Southeast Asian economies such as Thailand, Malaysia, Singapore, Hong Kong and Indonesia. Chong (284) elucidates that the term economic miracle has found usage in the definition of the speedier growth amid these nations within the past decades reaching its heights in the 1990s and culminating into the fiscal crisis of 1998. Reportedly, this era of economic augmentation brought with it an appreciable modernity as well as superior living standards amid their populace. Chong (284) observes that the accelerated development is traceable back to the sixties when the East Asian wealth grew at a miraculous rate given the slower over global rates. The subsequent decades witnessed similar growth rates that were far better than any other nation across the globe. According to Chong (284), none of the nations within this matrix experience wealth appreciation lesser than the highest values re corded else where within the globe. According to Cardarelli & Vivek (64) the developments witnessed in the south east and Southeast Asia are the results of two principal wealth creation strategies. Firstly, the considerable state involvement and secondly is the design and implementation of a successful export orient wealth augmentation base. ... According to Chong (284), China bears considerable resemblance to its southeastern neighbors with a characteristic strong aristocratic leadership and dependence on export-oriented growth model for its fiscal and wealth creation enhancements. Additionally, the wealth expansions in china have appreciably enhanced the modernity with observable increment in the overall living standards. Nonetheless, the nations persist to experience principal environmental predicaments which are inclusive of huge floods, extreme weather situations as well as recent life fatal accidental incidences within its rapidly progressing transport section. In spite of the closed up political system, China enjoys considerable levels of interactions with the rest of the globe. Cardarelli & Vivek (79) observes that such interactions are evident in its massive exports and enormous foreign exchange preserve. According to Cardarelli & Vivek (80), Chinese exports in the preceding year totaled about 1.5 trillion dollars with an overall global ranking of number two. Similarly, its imports were a considerable 1.3 trillion, which was third globally, while attracting massive foreign preserve of close to 2.6 trillion fiscal units. This massive reserve ensures China ended the preceding year as the leader in the foreign deals. Similarly, the past year saw Chinese external investment increment to about 279 billion dollars while the unswerving foreign deals reached an unbelievable 578 billion dollars. Cardarelli & Vivek (80) believe that these massive exports are confirmation of the presumed excessive dependency on exports.

Unit II non specific topic (Intercultural Management) Essay

Unit II non specific topic (Intercultural Management) - Essay Example In most cases, the parent company owns majority of stocks in the subsidiary companies (Deresky, 2011). Consequently, the host countries have minimal control over the MNC. Moreover, the host countries have minimal benefits from the corporation’s income. The MNC also reserve key managerial and technical positions to expatriate from their countries. Thus, the MNC are accused of failing to contribute to the development of human recourses in the host countries. In addition, MNCs do not contribute to the development of technologies and production capacity of the host country. The MNCs are mostly concerned with profits and in so doing they neglect their development obligations. MNCs also dominate the manufacturing industry thereby giving unnecessary competition to the local companies. In most case, the companies take advantage of corruption and mismanagements in the host countries to establish their interests. Thus, failure to meet corporate social responsibilities is the main source of complaints against the MNC. Question 2: What processes do MNCs need to establish in order to reduce prosecution risk? Many MNCs have decided to confront concerns about ethical behavior by developing worldwide practices that represent the companys policy. What are four policies used to address this issue? How would you implement these four policies in your business strategy? Multinational companies are faced with prosecution risks arising mismanagement and poor international relations. In order to reduce prosecution risks, MNCs needs to establish various processes. Firstly, MNCs need to ensure high level of integrity and accountability (Thomas, 2008). This will enable the corporations to avoid being drawn into unnecessary corruptions and scandals. However, some prosecutions are driven by business interests and, therefore the MNCs have minimal control over such occurrences. International business ethics are business

Micro Assignment Example | Topics and Well Written Essays - 500 words

Micro - Assignment Example This will result in an outward shift of the PPF curve. 2) The reason why countries such as Costa Rica and Bangladesh are better placed to produce shirts and then export them to the United States is because of their competitive advantage, not an absolute advantage. Let’s use Vietnam as an example. The wages that have to be paid to Vietnamese workers are far less than those that would be expected by American workers. This means that it is better for America to import goods such as shirts from third-world countries because it can be produced far cheaper. Even with the added costs of transportation, this option is still better than America producing the goods domestically. So even though the United States has an absolute advantage in almost every good, it makes logical sense for them to outsource work that can be done cheaper somewhere else. 3) The reason why countries such as China and India use manual laborers is because it is cost effective to do this in those countries. Also, these countries may not have the same technological expertise to produce machines to do the work for them. Even if this is the case, the average wage is so low that it does not cost very much to pay for human workers. On the other hand, in the United States, the minimum wage is so great that is would be too expensive to have to pay individual laborers to perform the work. Also, the United States is a technologically advanced country and can thus produce street cleaning machines to do the work. The total cost of making and using these machines is probably less than what it would be to have to pay manual laborers; thus it makes sense to use heavy street cleaning machines. 4) The reason why there is so much opposition to international trade is that some people argue that it hurts the local economy because of the loss of jobs for home workers. While international trade can be a good thing for the

Viewer Identification with Television Characters Essay

Viewer Identification with Television Characters - Essay Example The reason I identified with his character before was because of his boyish charm that made him irresistible to all women, except Kate Beckett who seems to be immune to his charms. If I ever become a millionaire, I would want to be the gentleman millionaire that he is. He treats the women right and in exchange, the women treat him like a god as well. Just like Richard Castle, I too am a very loyal friend who is always there when any of them need my help. We are similar in the way that we treat our friends, more like family than some strangers whom I just met and have to find something in common with. We both exude this sense of familiarity that makes it easy for other people to get along with us even though we just met them. That is not hard to understand. After all, we both tend to bend over backwards for people just to make sure that we are liked. Castle was raised by a single mother just as I was. We both respect and and love our mothers to the extent that we would give our respective mothers the shirts off our backs if she asked us to. That is the kind of gratitude that Richard Castle displays for his mother. Even though he sometimes acts like he is just putting up with his mothers presence (name any man who does not pretend that at one time or another with his mom), the reality of their situation is that he loves her deeply and would never want to see her hurt in any way by any person. We all know that men are constantly looking for their partner in life. Sometimes, men get married because they have found the one for them. That is what Richard Castle did at one point in his life. The result was a an intelligent daughter named Alexis who was left in his custody after he divorced his first wife. His relationship with Alexis is the kind that I would want to have with any son or daughter of mine should I ever get married and find myself divorced, or even if I dont end up divorced. As for his loyalty to women, I

The Influence Of The Mongol Rule On Russia In The 13-15th Centuries Essay - 1

The Influence Of The Mongol Rule On Russia In The 13-15th Centuries - Essay Example While there existed 15 quasi-independent principalities in the Russian lands of the mid-12th century, their numbers swelled to more than 50 on the eve of Mongol invasion (Vernadsky, 1973). The largest of these principalities included the Principality of Vladimir-Suzdal that dominated the North-East Rus, the mercantile Republic of Novgorod that was practically independent from the Riurikid dynasty due to its custom of electing its princes, and the Principality of Halych in the South-West that became a basis for Dual Principality of Halych-Volyn’ after the unification of Halych and Volyn’ under Volynian prince Roman Rostislavich (ruled 1189-1205) in 1199 (Martin, 2003, pp.97). The other principalities, including Ryazan, Smolensk, Chernigov, and Polotsk, were generally weak and dependent on their larger neighbors. The political fragmentation of Kievan Rus was accompanied by bitter infighting between various principal cliques for the domination over Kiev, which, while havin g lost its previous political and economic importance, still remained a lucrative prize for an ambitious prince. The most important feudal wars in the 12th to 13th century included the warfare between princely clans of Monomashichi and Ol’govichi in 1146-1154, the raid of north-eastern princes led by Andrey Bogolubsky against Kiev in 1169, and the war between Roman of Volyn’ and Suzdalian Grand Prince Vsevolod the Big Nest (ruled in 1154-1212) in 1202-1203 (Martin 2003; Vernadsky 1973). While the separation of Rus’ lands into distinct polities allowed rapid economic development at the local level and facilitated the formation of cultural centers independent from Kiev, it undermined the potential for a joint struggle of different principalities against the Great Steppe nomads.  

Rediscovering the Link between Traditional and Modern Shamanism Research Paper

Rediscovering the Link between Traditional and Modern Shamanism - Research Paper Example Since the rituals of the shaman are very specific and distinctive it is difficult to identify which one deserves restoration. Shamanism is flexible and open, which allowed an interaction between, for instance, Buddhism and shamanism in Mongolia (Witzel 2011: 44). Hence it would nowadays be hard to identify whether the practices of a shaman in Mongolia are inspired by centuries-old Buddhist rituals or whether Buddhist practices are rooted in shamanic beliefs. This paper analyzes the changes that traditional shamanism went through in order to adapt to contemporary needs, and the impossibility of restoring the pure, original form of shamanism. Contemporary Shamanism The 20th-century shamans in Japan or Siberia embrace the belief that they are merely a rough version of past events. The shaman has evolved and thus has his/her advocates and their needs. Shamanism in post-Reformation Europe appears to thrive in its neo-shamanic form because people can create an interpretation of supernatura l occurrences which are difficult to understand or explain in the perspective of the Protestant church (Jakobsen 1999: 209). Likewise, as stated in the accounts of Laura Kendall, shamanism attracts mostly Korean housewives. Contemporary shamanism thus has gone through transformations which have matched it to the users’ needs and focuses on prophecy and the family. ... Coercion of individuals by several shamans is common in all shamanic cultures. A number of scholars, such as Hahm Pyong-choon, emphasize this point since shamanism is threatened by the exact causes of neo-shamanism’s success in the Western world. Apparently, the current threats to shamanism are major perils to its survival. Worldwide occurrences, especially industrialization, urbanization, modernization, technological and scientific progress, the powerful spread of Christianity, and westernization have all created serious threats (Meadows 2011: 105). As the heightening of individualism and disintegration of the family persist shamanism will undoubtedly be threatened further. The dissimilarity between neo-shamanism and contemporary Korean shamanism is that in the latter the bond to the deceased family members and their impact on the lives of the living is the emphasis. The core element is the family. In neo-shamanism the person focuses on those who need attention and it is thus better adapted to contemporary Western urban culture (Gallagher 2006: 82). In South America, certain healers still perform some of the healing methods of the earlier shamans but it is a quite special challenge that shamans have to face in an urban environment. Nowadays, healers act in response to immorality in urban areas, to issues of drug addiction, domestic violence, child abuse, family disintegration, and prostitution. The morality of the healer, his spiritual defenses and his capacity to change the spirit domain for the benefit of his audiences is similar to early Amazonian practices (Adlam & Holyoak 2005: 531). His healing practices definitely are different from those of the mainstream medical procedures offered, for a fee, in urban areas. The urban